Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Beck/Dalton Game Score

I recently read an article in NBC that claimed that Tim Lincecum in his recent 2 hit shutout of the Braves was more dominant than Roy Halladay in his no hitter the other week. They based their information on what is called the Bill James Game Score. I don't like the stat and I will explain why after I give a brief explanation of what exactly it entails. First, you start out with 50 points. You add 1 point for each out, 2 points for each inning after 4, and 1 point for each strikeout. After that, you subtract 2 points for each hit, 4 points for each earned run, 2 points for each unearned run, and 1 point for each walk. Once all the math is completed you now have a measurement of how dominant a starting pitcher was.
I do not like this stat for a few reasons. First, I feel it overvalues the strikeout, especially when compared to a groundout. It is much more economical and something that is highly valued in a pitcher and I feel greatly adds to his dominance on any given night. My major complaint is that it doesn't increase the value for not allowing any hits. I feel that we should give credit if a pitcher pitches a complete-game no hitter and even more for a perfect game. To do so I have created (With the help of David Dalton) the Beck/Dalton Game Score. We have modified Bill James' work by changing a few numbers here and there to something that we view more accurately reflects pitching excellence. Without any further ado, here is what will soon become the best way to measure a pitcher's performance:
Start with 50 points
+2 for every inning after 6
+ 2 for groundouts
+2 for K
+1 for every avg. pitches per inning under 13
+20 Perfect Game
+10 No Hitter
-4 ER
-6 Every run after 3
-1 unearned runs
- 2 for every H
-1 for every BB
-1 for every pitch per inning over 13
Now for my explanation. We feel like this accurately reflects what makes a great pitching performance. First, we feel like that this recognizes a pitcher that is able to throw a great game in fewer pitches. If we look at Edwin Jackson's no hitter, he threw 149 pitches and walked 8 people. Our Game Score would take away points not only for walks but for the high pitch count. Even though Jackson threw a no hitter, he still scores lower than Lincecum and rightfully so because his pitch count was higher. We feel this is fair and greater emphasizes efficient pitching. Second, it emphasizes throwing a no hitter or perfect game. Third, it de-emphasizes strikeouts, which look cool but are not always the most efficient out. It is a great tool for a closer or when runners are on base but we feel that they ground out is also very important and our Game Score reflects that. One of the downfalls with our metric though is that we are unable to account for fly outs vs. pop outs and we would include them in our Game Score but they don't show up in our box scores. Once they do, we will add points to a pitcher's score as well for that.
Overall, we think that our Game Score is much more effective than that of Bill James because of these changes.

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